Not only is there momentum, but there's also demographics. Gay marriage has much more support by younger voters than older voters. Four years is enough to make a huge difference in this regard, as older voters die off and younger people become voters (or, if voting age already, become more consistent voters).
Thus, in November 2012, I think it's a pretty good bet that the voters of California will vote for same-sex marriage. They voted down same-sex marriage in 2008 by only 4 points. In 2012, they'll probably vote in favor of same-sex marriage by a small, but definite margin. Prop 8 will be history. Assuming a normal appeals process, involving a panel of the Ninth Circuit, an en banc review by the Ninth Circuit, then a certiorari petition to the Supreme Court, followed by briefing and argument, I just can't imagine the Supreme Court deciding before November 2012.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Prop 8 and the Supreme Court
David S. Cohen has an interesting piece up over at Feminist Law Professors about Prop 8 and whether the gay marriage debate will still be relevant by the time the appeal reaches the Supreme Court:
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I can only presume that Cohen lives in California, because, otherwise, he's making a very strange argument, since Judge Walker's decision, if it's upheld by the Supremes, wouldn't just affect California, since, if banning gay marriage is unconstitutional in one state, it's unconstitutional in all 50. Or is he saying that, by repealing Prop. 8 at the ballot box, California voters could actually, conceivably prevent that from happening? If so, would that mean the national anti-gay marriage groups could end up supporting a repeal?
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